EquALLity wrote:miniboes wrote:They can't. Their military is extremely weak and it would lead to war with many if not all major western powers. The risk is that they might do serious damage to Seoul, but they will never conquer SK.
Are you sure? They say they have nuclear weapons, and China is their ally. Would the rest of the west get involved if America stays out?
I think it's important to note that China and North Korea aren't exactly allies.
North Korea is like the weird kid in school with the trenchcoat, and China is one of the popular kids who is the only person friendly to that kid: one, because they used to be friends before China was popular, and two, because he's worried the kid will lose it and show up one day with a bunch of assault weapons and shoot up the school.
China just doesn't want the North to destabilize any more.
China has much better relationships with South Korea than North Korea. If North Korea were to
instigate aggressions, I have little doubt China would march its enormous land army through and occupy it while bombing all of its military targets.
Unlike if the U.S. did this, the people probably would not resist.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93South_Korea_relations#Present
The FTA between Korea and China are under discussion. South Korea has been running a trade surplus with China, which hit a record US$32.5 billion in 2009.[...]
The Park-Xi summit in 2013 showed promise of warming relations, but this quickly chilled after China extended their Air Defense Identification Zone (East China Sea) over South Korean territory.[7] Despite this, in July 2014, Xi visited South Korea before its traditional ally North Korea, and in their talks, both leaders affirmed their support for a nuclear-free Korean peninsula and the ongoing free trade agreement negotiations.[8] Both leaders also expressed their concerns over Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe's reinterpretation of Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution.
The bolded part is pretty important. Xi visited the South
BEFORE the North. Apparently this has happened a few times. And they're continually working on a free trade agreement, and affirming their mutual interest in keeping nuclear weapons out of the North's hands. As well as bonding over mutual resentment of Japan.
Here's a great summary:
http://www.cfr.org/china/china-north-korea-relationship/p11097
Experts say China has also been ambivalent on the question of its commitment to defend North Korea in case of military conflict. The 1961 Sino-North Korean Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance says China is obliged to intervene against unprovoked aggression. But Bonnie Glaser of the Center for Strategic and International Studies says the Chinese government has tried to persuade North Korean leaders to revoke the clause that would force Beijing to come to Pyongyang’s defense. Beijing has also said if conflict is initiated by Pyongyang it would not abide by its treaty obligation.
I suggest you read (or skim) the whole article to get some perspective on the issue.
If you read up on the history there you can see the dramatic shift in the relationship.
China doesn't want to be obligated to defend North Korea, and my bet is that they will just claim that any invasion of the North was provoked if done by the South, due to nuclear tests, or a sinking of a ship, etc. They'd probably stay out of it, despite the treaty.
If
North Korea acts in aggression, China will probably cooperate in crushing them from the North while the South closes from the other side. They might even cooperate with the U.S. in doing so, but there's a better chance of China resolving the North Korean conflict if the U.S. stays out of it.
Worst case scenario, they'd just stay out of it, particularly if the U.S. isn't involved.
The U.S. is kind of like the police getting involved in a domestic dispute. The man may be beating on his wife, but as soon as the police show up the wife will often attack them too. This is an Asian issue, and Asians don't really want the U.S. involved in it. Chalk it up to history and cultural differences.
Wikipedia offers a good Summary on the China-North Korean relationship as well:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93North_Korea_relations
Favorable views of North Korea among Chinese people appear to be receding as well. According to a 2014 BBC World Service Poll, 20% of Chinese people view North Korea's influence positively, with 46% expressing a negative view.[3]
Chinese people think North Korea is nuts, and have more favorable views of the U.S. and South Korea. This probably reflects the Chinese government's attitude too.
China is North Korea's largest trade partner, while North Korea ranked 82nd on the list of China's trade partners (2009 est.) China provides about half of all North Korean imports and received a quarter of its exports.
It's deceptive to say China is North Korea's largest trading partner as if it implies a close relationship or meaningful economic ties. It's a relationship that doesn't in any sense go both ways.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_China
South Korea is #3 for China. Behind only the U.S. and Japan.
