What Are Biden's Chances?

[Jebus]

What are the odds for that at the moment? I hope that's true, I've been seeing ads by Republicans trying to get donations so they can keep their Senate Majority.

I haven't seen any markets on this. It will depend a lot on the presidential election. I would estimate about 60% chance democrats will have control if Biden wins, and 40% chance if Dump wins.

I don't even know why he even got into politics; His life was amazing before, with a great reputation, now he just added in a load of stress into his life

Great reputation??? Hardly.

Obviously, the man with the world's biggest ego would aim for the world's biggest prize.

On a personal level I agree with you ( assuming I had no concern for others), I would much rather fly around the world in a private jet banging porn stars and models than have to deal with the stress of POTUS.

[brimstoneSalad]

Random question, do you think that if Trump wins reelection he'll start supporting more progressive policies since he doesn't have to worry about a reelection and keeping party support as much? I wouldn't bank on it, but is it possible?

Maybe he'll actually get back on board with wanting single-payer; I'm convinced he still wants that, but is too concerned with keeping reelection to promote it.

Republicans have indicated a willingness to do pretty much whatever he wants, if Trump started saying it today he could get his base excited and pretend it was his idea, and Republican lawmakers wouldn't break with him over it. He'd also get some democrat support.

So no, I don't think he really cares, he just wants to inflate his ego and be loved by his base.

However if Democrats take the legislature, he might start doing that just so we can get things done and claim credit for it. Otherwise like Jebus said it will probably be a do-nothing term. His reelection (again thanks to the electoral college with the popular majority against him) would also almost certainly provide the fuel to push the national popular vote over the line and kill the republican party for good. There are several maybe states that might be won after being motivated like that.

Libertarians will probably become the second party.

Even if Trump loses it will be hard for Republicans to recover without somebody much more liberal who has been outspoken against Trump running next term. Maybe Romney if he leans more left to distance himself from Trump politics, but if Biden wins it's very unlikely he'll lose the next term.

[Jebus]

if Biden wins it's very unlikely he'll lose the next term.

You think an 82 year old with early signs of dementia will run for a 2nd term?

Next week we should know who will be is VP pick. This is the most important VP pick in US history. Whoever it it will have a great chance of winning in 2024.

I am personally hoping for one of the Rices. Most likely Susan but Condoleeza would be a great strategical pick. Both highly intelligent.

[Red]

Great reputation??? Hardly.

Wasn't he a big name before he got into politics? I remember listening to an Alec Baldwin interview on Howard Stern I think a year or two back, where Baldwin talked about how Trump used to be synonymous with fame and being adored by everyone, and now he's gonna have to leave New York since he's so hated here in NYC.

[brimstoneSalad]

if Biden wins it's very unlikely he'll lose the next term.

You think an 82 year old with early signs of dementia will run for a 2nd term?

He doesn't have early signs of dementia, but it's possible he'll want to retire before 90, and we don't know what his cardiovascular health is like.
You're right that if he doesn't run again that his VP will have pretty good odds, but not being the incumbent they still won't be as good as his own odds. We would be better off with him running and winning the second term then stepping down if he needs to.

[Red]

Who do you think the running mate will be? I think Biden's cardiovascular health is better than Trump's given Trump's shitty diet. I don't know what Biden eats but I assume he eats somewhat healthier.

EDIT: Looked into it, Biden doesn't seem to have the best diet (lots of ice cream and sweets and processed crap).
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/ever ... aign-trail
However it could be because he's on a campaign trail and needs to get food quickly, and doesn't have time to sit down and prepare a meal? The healthiest things I saw on here were a chopped salad and grilled chicken.

[brimstoneSalad]

Given his age he should really make it a priority to eat healthier on the campaign trail so people can SEE that he's not going to drop dead from dietary causes.

[Jebus]

They are both on medication to lower cholesterol. However, I think Biden exercises from time to time and he probably doesn't pig out on junk food as much as Dump.

[Red]

Biden apparantly exercises 5 days a week (though that won't necessarily make up for a shitty diet):
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... -president

The article doesn't clarify what it means by 'Work Out,' I assume moderate physical activity like brisk walking or some light weight lifting, or at most some intense sessions on the treadmill. I highly doubt Biden's age will allow him to even bench press the bar.

Apparantly he's quite fond of Angel hair pasta... and ice cream.

Oh yeah, and based off an ad from Biden, his VP pick is going to be a woman. Jebus, do you have an idea which? It might be Susan Rice.

[Jebus]

I always suspected it would be Susan Rice. He knows her personally since they worked together under Obama. He also knows that she is highly intelligent and would be a good POTUS. Harris is the odds on favorite but I think Biden thinks she would be a better fit for attorney general. Anyway, we will know the answer soon.