Cory Booker- Does He Have A Chance?

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Jebus
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Re: Cory Booker- Does He Have A Chance?

Post by Jebus » Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:40 pm

brimstoneSalad wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 8:21 am
This article summarizes the issue pretty well: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wh ... primaried/
It's a good summary but do you think this article support the suggestion that 3 to 1 is good odds or bad odds?
brimstoneSalad wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 8:21 am
I wouldn't bet on odds that low. You should only bet what you can afford to lose, no matter how good the odds are, and the amount I could afford to lose wouldn't be worth the trouble of betting and collecting to get 3x back
That must suck. I mean to believe that an event is unlikely ( presumably a lot less than 50 percent) while having the option to triple your money on it if you only had the money.
brimstoneSalad wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 8:21 am
gambling is a negative sum game
"Gambling, " and I hate to use that term since it should be reserved for luck casino style games, is a negative sum game for most people. It is a positive sum game for people who understand statistics, mathematics, probabilities, who are self-disciplined and who do their home-work.
brimstoneSalad wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 8:21 am
, so I lean against it even with good odds unless I can be sure the person I'm taking money from is a really bad person.
Good point. However, these days the odds of some bookmakers are very close (and often better) to those of betting exchanges. Would you have a problem winning money from a big bookmaking company?

Would you at least concede that 3 to 1 on Trump not being the Republican nominee is a damn good odds for someone who has some money to invest? Personally I think it is and might put some money on it.
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Jamie in Chile
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Post by Jamie in Chile » Fri Mar 22, 2019 6:56 pm

I think the odds are good. Now that you mention it.

Is it 3 to 1 as in bet $1 to get $4 (that's what 3-1 means when quoted in UK sporting events, you get your $1 stake back PLUS $3) or do you mean bet $1 to get $3 total ($2 profit). If it's the former, take the bet, if it's the latter, perhaps, but nothing to get excited about it.

I am not convinced by the 538 article.

I see 2 ways Trump doesn't get the nomination.
1. Something weakens his support - could be economic depression, a poor response to a major natural disaster or terrorist attack, or a badly handled war or entanglement in some foreign issue.
2. He DECIDES not to run. I am assuming you still win the bet in this case.

I think point 2 is much underrated. Either (and these can be combined)
2a He decides not to run because he sees he is going to lose and wants to go out a winner. (Of course, he will still claim he would have won.)
2b He decides not to run because he would rather do something else that be President. I mean, he has got some serious options now. Get paid millions giving talks in Saudi Arabia and Russia and Israel? Easy. Do another apprentice show (or a different show) and make millions if not tens of millions? Easy. Set up his own TV channel for his supporters and run it, own it or even host it? Doable. Did you know that Trump didn't run for President the time before because he chose the wealth of a TV show over the Presidency?

Maybe he wants to play golf and relax. A part of him is lazy. Presidency is tough.

He's scratched that itch. Proved everyone wrong. Going out an undefeated champion might appeal to him.

I asked myself why is Trump going so hard on the wall, shutting down the government, even though it is costing him support from the population. Is he dumb? Or has he already decided not to run?

Also, he now runs the risk of facing various criminal charges at some point. Could he cut a deal with someone – don’t prosecute me and I won’t run in 2020. Who does he make that deal with, informally or formally, implicitly or explicitly? I don’t know. That's tricky. But it could be possible.

If Trump says 100 times he's going to run, I don't feel that discounts my argument. He often lies, or changes his mind. I think if he were planning not to run, why say so at this stage? It just makes him into a lame duck. By keeping the announcement until later he retains power and influence, as well as being able to drop a dramatic announcement later, which could appeal to him.

I don't see how he justifies it to his hardcore support.

I put the odds of Trump not even running at 20%. Most people are not even considering it.

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Post by Jebus » Fri Mar 22, 2019 11:02 pm

Jamie in Chile wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 6:56 pm
Is it 3 to 1 as in bet $1 to get $4 (that's what 3-1 means when quoted in UK sporting events, you get your $1 stake back PLUS $3) or do you mean bet $1 to get $3 total ($2 profit).
It would be $2 profit. I prefer to use decimal odds where it would be roughly 1.33 for Trump to get the nomination (or 3.0 for him not to get the nomination).
Jamie in Chile wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 6:56 pm
He DECIDES not to run. I am assuming you still win the bet in this case.
Yes, you would. The only case where one would not win is in the case of assassination.

I agree that there is a good chance he decides not to run just to save face (and avoid being a loser). However, power is to many people highly addictive and hard to let go of.
How to become vegan in 4.5 hours:
1.Watch Forks over Knives (Health)
2.Watch Cowspiracy (Environment)
3. Watch Earthlings (Ethics)
Congratulations, unless you are a complete idiot you are now a vegan.

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brimstoneSalad
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Post by brimstoneSalad » Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:04 am

Jebus wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:40 pm
It's a good summary but do you think this article support the suggestion that 3 to 1 is good odds or bad odds?
Well, in theory you take a 3 to 1 bet if you think the probability is higher than 25% chance, so yeah.

By the article I would say it's more than a 50% chance he will be the nominee of probably means anything.

Personally I'd go as high to say 75% unless he's impeached or eats a baby (which is about what it'd take for the Republicans to abandon him, they're loyal to their tribe beyond reason).
Impeachment looks unlikely if the Democrats haven't moved on that by now... what are they waiting for?
Maybe they want to let him burn things down rather than give Pence a good chance to lead things (and a better chance of winning).
Unless they're waiting until the last minute so the Republicans have to scramble for a nominee. Or maybe they want to run against Trump? Too many variables. If they're waiting for that then Trump has no chance but I have no means to divine the psychology of the Democrats. Inside knowledge here would be very useful.

They're not offering a huge margin over what I'd guess. It's good odds, but not great odds.
Jebus wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:40 pm
That must suck. I mean to believe that an event is unlikely ( presumably a lot less than 50 percent) while having the option to triple your money on it if you only had the money.
Even if I had that money, I'd put it into other things that are more sure, like infrastructure investment that's also good for the environment.

There are a lot of things in your home or long term rental that you can do to save more money than that.
Think solar water heating, greywater system, vegetable garden with automatic irrigation... Things that will pay back in a year or two and give you multiple times what you spent over their lifetimes.

Also, a few of the meat alternatives look like they're gearing up for IPOs, and investing in those is good for veganism and a pretty good bet too.
Investing in small vegan businesses is also a good call ethically, although payoff is less likely.
Jebus wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:40 pm
"Gambling, " and I hate to use that term since it should be reserved for luck casino style games, is a negative sum game for most people. It is a positive sum game for people who understand statistics, mathematics, probabilities, who are self-disciplined and who do their home-work.
No, I mean a "negative sum game" in the sense that there's no value added, but net value lost. One person has to lose and then some for another person to win even less than that person lost.

Even if you reliably win, somebody else has to be losing.
Jebus wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:40 pm
Good point. However, these days the odds of some bookmakers are very close (and often better) to those of betting exchanges. Would you have a problem winning money from a big bookmaking company?
As I'm not a gambler, I don't know well enough how that works.
My understanding is that odds are generated based on the ratio of wagers people make minus a cut for the house, and the company running it never loses its own money nor participates in actual wagering. I could be wrong.

If you're really just taking money from an evil bookmaking company that's putting up its own cash, maybe that would be OK.
Jebus wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:40 pm
Would you at least concede that 3 to 1 on Trump not being the Republican nominee is a damn good odds for someone who has some money to invest? Personally I think it is and might put some money on it.
If you have spare money and nothing else to put it into, I suppose so.
But I'd really look into what you can invest in at home first.

Do you have a greywater system? Solar water heating? Irrigation system and vegetable garden?

Payoff for investment at home is likely to be better than gambling, and more sure of a thing... plus a lot better for the environment.

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brimstoneSalad
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Post by brimstoneSalad » Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:20 am

Jebus wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 11:02 pm
Jamie in Chile wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 6:56 pm
Is it 3 to 1 as in bet $1 to get $4 (that's what 3-1 means when quoted in UK sporting events, you get your $1 stake back PLUS $3) or do you mean bet $1 to get $3 total ($2 profit).
It would be $2 profit. I prefer to use decimal odds where it would be roughly 1.33 for Trump to get the nomination (or 3.0 for him not to get the nomination).
Isn't that called 3 for 1, not 3 to 1?

If we're talking risking a dollar for two dollars profit, that's not so great at all. Lots of things will give you those returns with less risk.
Jebus wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 11:02 pm
I agree that there is a good chance he decides not to run just to save face (and avoid being a loser). However, power is to many people highly addictive and hard to let go of.
I disagree, I think the odds of that are very low.
I think he would prefer to lose so he can complain about it and say actually he won but the vote was rigged. Not running would be seen as quitting and look very bad to his base.

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