I realized, that I have to make a clarification. I wrote "cropland". However. in the study it is area of agriculture, which is wider (cropland+pasture). Actually, that makes it more fortunate and shows there might be other uses for current pasture. This is especially important, considering changes in food consumption, which most participants in this forum hope for.PhilRisk wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2019 7:35 am
But still the effect on temperature in the high emission scenario is fairly low (roughly 0.2K at 2100) in case of giving up roughly 17% of cropland. To be effective it needs land-use change.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 16GL068824
Fig. 1&2 are of special interest as they show the land-use and the effects respectively.
The data for land-use change in the above study is taken from Hurtt el al.
https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/1 ... 0153-2.pdf
If your interested, the land-use change for different scenarios is shown on page 137f.
It can be seen, that in RCP 4.5 on which they builded their assessment of the influence of afforestation, cropland and pasture is reduced respectively. In RCP 2.6, which is the low temperature scenario, there is a heavy reliance on BECCS in most cases and an extension of cropland.