What causes economic crashes?

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Red
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Re: What causes economic crashes?

Post by Red »

carnap wrote: Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:26 pm Right its your prediction but my point is your prediction is really just an outlandish guess. If you crunch the basic numbers here its clear there is no reason to suspect the tariffs to cause an "economic collapse" or anything remotely similar.

Some economists argue that the tariffs could reduce GDP growth but that is much different than predicting a recession let alone an "economic collapse". For example let's say the GDP growth in the US was going to be 2.75%, the tariffs may reduce that to 2.40%.
How many times must I repeat, I admitted it was too strong of a word to convey what I meant, and that I'm just listening to what the experts say? Even then, never said it was what the experts said (I merely said it was based on what they said), and never even considered it to be terribly likely.
carnap wrote: Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:26 pm You shouldn't, that is why I presented some basic math here to show the economic impact of the tariffs.
So, should I trust you or not then?
carnap wrote: Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:26 pm You think China should continue to steal intellectual property from the US and the US can continue to maintain a trade deficit of $370 billion?
https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/loaded-question
How would these tariffs help exactly? I'm asking honestly here. The Chinese Government doesn't have any interest in stealing the IP from what I've heard, so how does punishing them help?
I know Trump has an 'America First' policy, but free trade is too important to pass up.
carnap wrote: Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:26 pmTrump didn't create the issues with China, they are long standing issues. His approach may not be the best but a "trade war" of sorts was becoming pretty inevitable.
I know Trump will be who he is, but the status quo isn't something we should passively accept as 'inevitable'.
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Re: What causes economic crashes?

Post by carnap »

Red wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 6:30 pm So, should I trust you or not then?
I already answered this question. I'm not asking you to "trust me", I provided a brief argument going over the math to show that the impact of the tariffs would be small.
Red wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 6:30 pm How would these tariffs help exactly? I'm asking honestly here. The Chinese Government doesn't have any interest in stealing the IP from what I've heard, so how does punishing them help?
Where did you heard that? Your claim really makes no sense, by stealing intellectual property Chinese businesses (and the government) can gain huge sums of wealth. For example, if a pharmaceutical company in the US has spent $20 million developing a drug with potential sales in China of $100 million there are $100 million reasons for a company in China to steal the intellectual property.

The tariffs against China seem to be primarily a form of punishment. They won't, in themselves, prevent the Chinese from stealing intellectual property but they could create incentives for the government to better force intellectual property.
Red wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 6:30 pm I know Trump has an 'America First' policy, but free trade is too important to pass up.
China doesn't practice "free trade" which is precisely the issue. But what is important about free trade?
Red wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 6:30 pm I know Trump will be who he is, but the status quo isn't something we should passively accept as 'inevitable'.
The point of my comment is that since China has done little to address the issues a clash between China and the US on trade was inevitable. That is to say, this is by no means an issue Trump pulled out of his rear end.
I'm here to exploit you schmucks into demonstrating the blatant anti-intellectualism in the vegan community and the reality of veganism. But I can do that with any user name.
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